Weekly analytical column of Vadim Drobiz Week March, 28 – April, 03 2016

Vadim Drobiz – Head of the Center for Federal and Regional Alcohol Market Research (CFRAMR)

The most quoted in the Russian media expert on the alcohol market of Russia, former Soviet republics and Eastern Europe. The latest news, detailed analysis, commentary, statistical databases on the alcohol market since 2002.

Full versions of the materials published in Russian on the website Vadim Drobiz http://cifrra.info/

Email: alko-pr59@yandex.ru

Week March, 28 – April, 03 2016

Russian alcohol market

Since the beginning of the year in Russia dramatically increased production of cheap alcohol. At the same time, significantly reduced the release of high-quality alcoholic beverages.

So, the production of  low quality wines, the so-called wine beverages, increased by 51%. I explain this trend a sharp rise in demand for cheaper products due to falling incomes in the majority of Russians. Such alcohol is easier to produce, it is much cheaper in the retail trade, which is very important currently. But it should be noted that the total volume of wine beverages production is not as large – 180 million liters, and the volume of production of regular wine is 2.2 times more – 400 million liters.

At the same time, since the beginning of the year significantly reduced the release of high-quality alcoholic beverages: vodka production fell by 15%, champagne (sparkling wine) – by 23%, wine – by 12%, cognac (brandy) – by 4%.

In my opinion such a marked decline was due to the fact that from January 1st, 2016 Russia launched the Unified State Automated Information System Registry volume of production and turnover of ethyl alcohol, alcohol and alcohol-containing products (Russian abbreviation EGAIS). Under this system, the manufacturer must register every single bottle of alcohol, otherwise it will be considered as illegal products. From January 1, all retail was supposed to be in EGAIS, but even by the end of January, the number of outlets, connected to the system, were small, so in January was stagnation, disrupting the distribution chain. At the end of March it was connected for about 80% of retail outlets. I think that in the next two months, most likely, the market will recover.

I also want to note that from January of this year significantly reduced the import of foreign alcoholic beverages: 30% less import of foreign whiskey, fell by 15% import of cognac, 12% less sparkling wines, 6% of the wine. At the same time in the last three months imports of wine materials has doubled.

It proved that

Analysts have long paid attention to the fact that level of wine consumption depends on the level of prosperity in the state. The growth of the welfare of citizens is always accompanied by a rise of wine consumption in the total consumption of alcohol in the country.

The question arises: “What wine is better than any other alcoholic beverage?” Firstly, about the therapeutic benefits of wine written many scientific articles. Secondly, this drink consumption model differs from the model of hard liquor and beer consumption. Wine belongs to the type of beverages that drink not so much to achieve the end result – drunkenness, but primarily from dietary, culinary and even aesthetic reasons. In other words, wine is drinking to enjoy its taste. And so, as a rule, wine is drinking as much as the required accompanying its food, the desire to have fun, not the pursuit of intoxication.

Family spending …

The average Russian family spends on alcohol and tobacco 8.3% of their income. This is unacceptable much! Why? Because it is expensive! For example, resident of Western Europe spends in total on alcohol and food is not more than 15% of his/her income. And we have 65% of Russia’s population that spends more than 50% on food and beverages …

Whiskеy in Russia

In my column of March 21-27 were presented data Research I-Marketing Company on consumption and imports of whiskey in Russia in January-October 2014 and 2015. I have my own figures for the full year. It follows from them that the official (no gray imports) import whiskey in 2014 rose (+ 0.5%) to 4.13 million decaliters, and fell (-23%) to 3.36 million decaliters in 2015. This is 230 ml per Russians a year. For comparison, recorded by official statistics (with paid excise duty) consumption of vodka is an average of 5.9 liters per person a year in Russia. More than 25 times!

According to the Federal State Statistics Service in retail sales has been realized in Russia whiskey over the years, thousands decalitres:

Name / Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Whiskey 4203 3937 4979 5375 6271 5685

On the new productions of  whiskey in Russia is not heard except the newly signed deal between Bacardi company and alcoholic holding “Synergy” (here).

About distilleries

The Russians have not to risk of building at home distilleries since already at least 10 years promise to take away all distilleries in favor of the state. Some foreigners, apparently, it is not yet know about it. So in the Far East the company of Sutech Engineering from Thailand plans to launch a line for production of ethyl alcohol for medical purposes in the existing sugar factory. In the production the investor is ready to invest 50 to 70 million dollars.

There is much talk about the possibility of transmission to RAR (Federal Service for Alcohol Market Regulation) rights licensing production of medical alcohol. If this happens then the dozens of distilleries are automatically placed in the program of possible the state monopoly on alcohol … In general, it seems that the Thais could lose business!

About vodka

In 2015, according to official statistics in Russia from 63.73 million decaliters of vodka excise duty has been paid. Factories reported on the production of 78.45 million decaliters of vodka. And retail sales showed 106.4 million decaliters of vodka. It turns out that of the total volume sold vodka 40% – this is an illegal product, from which were not paid applicable taxes. It is prohibitively much!

What do we drink?

I do not stop to wonder how wise enough to just 30 years by 1984 in the Soviet Union formed the structure of the consumption of wine, low alcohol and hard alcohol products: about 10-11 liters of hard alcohol, about 27 liters of wine production and about 24-25 liters of beer production per year on average per capita. From my point of view this is the ideal structure of the consumption of all types of alcohol to which are now spontaneously moves all European and North American culture. And we in Russia today, if taking into account illegal and the surrogate products, such ratio: about 8 liters of wine production, about 62 liters of beer and low alcoholic beverages and about 15-16 liters of strong alcohol per capita per year. Russia very much fell down for last 30 years in all major indicators.

Incidents of statistics

I drew a long time attention to the fact that in the US, the EU, in other countries of the world, as well as the World Health Organization and other organizations define the average per capita alcohol consumption of the population of a country from 15 years of age. Even in the United States taking as a basis for statistics that age, although officially it is possible to consume alcohol from 21 years. I think that it tacitly admit that in any society young people start drinking alcohol from 15 years. I think that should determine the average consumption of alcohol from 18 years. And if you take 15 years, it means thereby recognize the right of young people to drink alcohol from this age. No wonder that in several European countries wine can officially use from 16 years …

Moldova: results of the year

The volume of Moldovan alcohol exports fell by almost 18% in 2015 compared with the previous year and amounted to $153.7 million (2014 – $186.7 million). Exports drop occurs for the third year in a row. Supply reduction was primarily in the CIS countries (-30%). In the rest of the world, without the EU (-28%). This negative trend somewhat compensated growth supply in the EU (+ 12%).

Last year continued redistribution of the segments in the Moldovan export portfolio. The CIS share in the results of 2015 accounted for 46.6% (last year – 60%), the EU – 25.4%, and other countries – 28% (in the previous year for these two direction was 20%).

The Top 5 major markets included the same countries that a year ago, but there was some permutation. The first five in 2014 looked like: Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, the United States and Russia. In 2015, the leadership still retained Belarus with supply on $36.6 million followed by Ukraine – $13 million, next US – $12.7 million, Kazakhstan – $11.2 million, and closes the top five Russia – $9.5 million. It should be noted that the US market for the first time one of the three main export countries for Moldovan alcoholic beverages. However, all of them were earned less money than a year ago.

Major markets for Moldovan alcoholic beverages in the European Union – Poland ($9.3 million), the Czech Republic ($8.2 million) and Romania ($6.2 million). In the rest of the world countries – Georgia ($7.3 million) and China ($6 million). There are new markets – in Spain, South Africa, Bosnia and Herzegovina (wine), Panama, Hungary and Armenia (spirits). After a few years break, resumed shipments to Australia, France and Thailand (wine).

Traditionally, the primary trade accounted for grape wines, their share in total exports of alcoholic beverages from Moldova was about 64% in the past year. If you look at volume indicators, they even rose slightly from 10.2  thousand decalitres to 11.4 thousand dal, and the money we have received for these wines less (in 2014 – $111.8 million, in 2015 – $97.7 million). That is, prices fell, and in all directions. The reasons are known – after the embargo was imposed in Russia on Moldovan wines on the markets of neighboring countries immediately lowered their prices, plus added regional crisis – in the CIS countries greatly devalued the local currency.

From the CIS countries the largest suppliers of wine were in Belarus, the volume of which the last three years is about the same level – about 4.3 million decaliters, and in monetary terms – is reduced. If in 2013, Moldova has received for this amount $40.4 million, in 2015 – $25.4. How to recognize the producers themselves, they spoiled the Belarusian market after 11 September 2013 (the last Russian embargo), excitedly offering their products Belarusians cheaper than peers. In Russia sent 1.1 million dal wines (in 2014 – 1 million dal). In third place – Ukraine, which last year was still in force customs duties on imports. However, despite these unfavorable factors for trade, our wine exports in volume terms to the country even increased by 57%, which can not be said about its value, which, on the contrary, decreased by 32%.

In the EU, the largest volumes of wine were shipped to Romania, Czech Republic and Poland. The main market for Moldovan wines from the rest of the world – Georgia (1.2 million dal), to be exact – to Abkhazia, as well as China (growth – twice, however, the cost – only +23%) and the United States. The US market was perhaps the most interesting in the past year for Moldovan winemakers: for the last year delivery in liters increased 2.2 times, in dollars – in 2 times. That is carried out for two consecutive years to promote activities in this market are beginning to bear fruit. Interestingly, more than half of the wine exports to the US account for sparkling wines.

For the brandy (in Moldova, they were given the name of the divines) main market was Ukraine (269 thousand dal), though, compared to the previous year, there was a decline by almost half, and before that – about as much. The second of the major markets – Belarus (107 thousand dal), to the rest of countries the supplied insignificant amount of divines.

A year ago, the National Vine and Wine Office planned to undertake activities to promote the Moldovan wine production in Poland and the Czech Republic. Unfortunately, due to the fact that the State failed to comply with their obligations and not transferred its share in the established fund, the plans had to be abandoned. For example, the Polish market has clearly seen that Moldova has reached a limit on the volume in the segment of cheap semi-sweet wines. Supply it does not grow past few years. Moldovan wines need to go to the segment of dry quality wines, which extends, in contrast to the segment of semi-sweet wines. Related negotiation were with partners from the Czech Republic, to take similar measures on the Czech market in the next year as it is the second largest export of Moldovan alcoholic products in the EU. In both these countries developing the middle class and changing consumer preferences. They want to have more quality dry wines.


In 2016 in Russia it will be laid less them 5 000 ha of vineyards – it is already clear that the planting program, adopted by the Ministry of Agriculture for 2012 – 2020, will fail… This further pushes the dream of the Russian government about the maximum providing themselves with their own grapes and wine to the 2025 – 2030 years. So, gentlemen, importers, boldly bring in imported wine material not 17- 20 million dal in a year as it is now, and at least 50 million dal. You will have someone to sell it!

Carlsberg Problems in Russia

To describe the situation of the beer giant Carlsberg in Russia its CEO, Cees’ t Hart, used the image of glass that “half empty,” what he said in an interview with Financial Times. “Our company has business including some of the most difficult parts of the world, such as Russia. The last five or six years, we can not wake up the enthusiasm of investors in the country. We are behind some of our competitors in terms of profitability and return on invested capital. In 2010, the Russian market has provided about half of net profit Carlsberg, and in 2015 – only 16% … ”

I would for my part say it this way – as already taken all from Russia. Even “beer generation” did not save Russian market from a strong decline in production and consumption of the drink. At the same time I want to note an important point that this is happening without the explicit substitution of beer other alcoholic beverages: beer consumption in 8 years has fallen by 20 liters per person, and other alcoholic beverages is not increased. For this reason I write off a drop in beer consumption only on the demographic problems of Russia. Beer boom in 1995- 2007 is ideally matched with exit on Russian market Western beer companies when on this market exit children massively born in the Soviet period from 1978 to 1990.

Email: alko-pr59@yandex.ru

Weekly analytical column of Vadim Drobiz Week March, 21 – March, 27 2016

Vadim Drobiz – Head of the Center for Federal and Regional Alcohol Market Research (CFRAMR)

The most quoted in the Russian media expert on the alcohol market of Russia, former Soviet republics and Eastern Europe. The latest news, detailed analysis, commentary, statistical databases on the alcohol market since 2002.

Full versions of the materials published in Russian on the website Vadim Drobiz http://cifrra.info/

Week on March 21 – March 27, 2016

Bacardi will pour William Lawson’s Scotch at the Russian plant

One of the world’s largest producers of alcohol Bacardi company agreed with alcoholic holding “Synergy” about the bottling of its William Lawson’s Scotch at plant “Tradition of Quality” in Moscow Region and in the future it will stop the import to Russia. In retail William Lawson’s Russian production could come this summer. “After that, William Lawson’s imports from Scotland will stop,” – said the head of Bacardi in Eastern Europe Alejandro Ouziel. According to the chairman of the “Synergy” Alexander Mechetin, for 2016 and 2017 for Bacardi it will produce about 1 million decaliters of William Lawson’s. The actual amount will depend on the supply and demand situation in the Russian economy, the parties stipulate. “Synergy” will be responsible only for bottling the product. This is the first production аn international brand of whiskey in the Russian company. (Since June 2015, the facilities of the Kazan alcoholic distillery bottled owned by Diageo brand Rowson’s Reserve whiskey, designed specifically for Russia. Before it, vodka “Smirnov” and rum Shark Tooth bottled by Petersburg “Ladoga”.)

The project was made possible thanks to the new Russian GOST (a set of technical standards maintained by the Euro-Asian Council for Standardization), which came into force on 1 July 2015, allowing to produce any grain distillates, ranging from whiskey and ending with the traditional Russian moonshine.

Financial terms of the agreement, the parties did not disclose.

Alejandro Ouziel of Bacardi says that the transfer of production William Lawson`s in Russia will allow the company less dependent on price fluctuations of the ruble. “We have not increased in proportion the value of our whiskey to drop of the ruble,” – emphasizes Ouziel. “Since the beginning of the active devaluation of the ruble price of our product on the shelf has increased by 25-30%, while the ruble has fallen significantly stronger”, – he added. Now stores offer to buy 0.5 liters of William Lawson’s an average of 800-850 rubles ($ 11.8 – $ 12.5), but you can find a 0.5 liter and for 450 rubles ($ 6.6).

For bottling will be used bottles of 0.5, 0.7 and 1 liter. Raw materials (60-degree alcohol) will be imported.

“Will Bacardi bottling other brands in Russia, the company has not yet decided”, – says Ouziel. Now William Lawson’s bottled in Scotland, Ecuador and India.

According to my calculations in the 0.5 liter bottle cost of whiskey – around 150 rubles ($ 2.20). Bottle, label, cap will cost 17 rubles ($ 0.25), bottling procedure – 10 rubles ($ 0.15). Total – $ 2.60 in 0.5 liter bottle.

For consumers, it is important where the product is made, so the bottling of whiskey in Russia is ambiguous, said Maria Lapenkova from Nielsen. It seems to me that in a year – two all become accustomed to the “Russian” whiskey.

According to Nielsen, William Lawson’s – the leader among imported whiskey brands in Russia (18.4% in volume terms, see table).

The most popular brands of whiskey in the Russian market in terms of volume, in %, according to data for 2015 from The Nielsen Company

William Lawson’s (Bacardi) 18.4
White Horse (Diageo) 14.0
Bell’s (Diageo) 10.3
Johnnie Walker (Diageo) 5.5
Jameson (Pernod Ricard) 3.6
Black & White (Diageo) 3.5
Jack Daniels (Brown-Forman) 3.5
Ballantines (Pernod Ricard) 3.1
Clan MacGregor (William Grants & Sons) 2.7

I believe that Bacardi decision on localization of the brand of the lower price segment in Russia was made due to the devaluation of the ruble and the impoverishment of a large number of consumers. Whisky in Russia again became too expensive for the consumer middle-class groups, and the manufacturer must somehow respond to the situation. I am sure that William Lawson`s localization in Russia – this is only the first example, the followers will be available soon.

How many saves Bacardi, moving the bottling of whiskey in Russia, Ouziel not disclose. The manager of a large Russian alcohol companies, having experience of working in overseas markets, believes that under the condition of components production in Russia, Bacardi can save up to 100 rubles ($ 1.5) with 0.5 liter bottle.

Russian whiskey market

Due to the rise in prices for imported alcohol in 2015 supply whiskey to Russia almost fell 22.2% to 33.6 million liters. I estimated the volume of the Russian market of whiskey last year at 70-75 billion rubles a year ($ 1.0 – $ 1.1 billion). 79.2% of Russian import of whiskey in 2015 were from the United Kingdom. Of the total imported whiskey in Russia in the past year, 31.4% had company Diageo. Second place belongs to the Bacardi. The company has imported in the last year 6.1 million liters, which is 26.2% lower than a year earlier. However, a sharp drop in imports was due also to the presence of a large number of inventory in warehouses. In 2014, after the introduction Russia of food sanctions against EU countries and the United States, large foreign companies were built up of its products in Russia for fear that Russia could be included in the sanctions list imported alcohol.

Russia occupies 31th place in the world for whiskey consumption per capita per year (0.2 liters) for the year 2014 data.

Review of the Russian market of whiskey

Research I-Marketing Company

Retail sale of whiskey in Russia in January-October 2015 were “confident middling” among alcohol sales: sales growth was not, but the drop in relative to 10 months of 2014 there was one of the most minimal in the country, compared to other segments of alcoholic beverages. For example, retail sales of whiskey decreased by 5%. (Here and below are the numbers of official sources such as the Federal State Statistics Service and the Federal Customs Service, excluding counterfeit and illegal products), while vodka sales fell 7%, cognac and brendy – by 6%, alcoholic production (with alcohol content of 25% and above) – by 6%, alcoholic beverages (alcohol content of not more than 9%) – 23%, wine beverages – by 10%, sparkling wines – by 7%, liqueur wines – 12%. Sales of beer and fruit wines decreased, respectively, 5% and 3%.

In general, the whiskey segment is experiencing the same problems as other types of alcoholic beverages: the devaluation of the ruble, the excise policy of the state and reduced solvency of the population. All this leads to an increase in counterfeiting and illegal production.

According to the results of 10 months of 2015, Russia’s retail sales of whiskey was 4.1 million decaliter (dal), which is 5% below the same period last year – 4.3 million dal. (Table 1).

The volume of retail sales and imports of whiskey in January-October 2014 and 2015 in million decaliters

Name January-October 2014 January-October 2015
Retail sales 4.3 4.1
Import 4.2 2.6
Imports (in $ million) 418 191

At the same time the official volume of whiskey imports decreased by 38% – from 4.2 million dal given for 10 months in 2014 to 2.6 million dal for the 10 months of 2015.

The difference between retail sales and imports, according to experts of the company I-Marketing, is due to several reasons: rolling inventory, the availability of data on the illegal sales of whiskey in the official statistics (such as “gray” imports from Poland) and counterfeit products, as well as the growth of illegal imports of .

Obviously, the volume of real whiskey consumption (including counterfeit) higher than the official data: according to various estimates, the share of illegal whiskey is about 30-40% of the Russian market.

In the first 9 months of 2015, most federal districts of the Russian Federation observed whiskey sales decline compared to the same period in 2014. These data are summarized in Table 2.

Russian Name of county Dynamics of whisky retail sales in January-October 2015 compared to January-October 2014, in volume terms, as %
Russian Federation (as a whole) -4.3
Central +0.1
Northwestern +0.9
South -3.1
North Caucasus +5.3
Volga region -18.4
Uralian region -19.5
Siberian -3.9
Far Eastern -12.5
Crimea (dispute its membership in Russia) -62.0

According to experts of the company I-Marketing, a strong decline in sales in some districts due to a higher rate of real incomes of the population fall relative to other regions. As a consequence, the population switched to cheaper substitutes whiskey – counterfeit alcohol and vodka.

Retail sales of whiskey by Federal Districts in January-October 2014 and 2015 in thousand decalitres

Table 3

Federal District January-October2014 January-October2015 Change,at % Change,thousands dal
Central 2149.5 2151.5 +0.1 +2
Northwestern 613.6 618.9 +0.9 +5
South 273.1 264.7 -3.1 -8
North Caucasus 43.7 46.0 +5.3 +2
Volga region 485.4 396.1 -18.4 -89
Uralian region 325.7 262.2 -19.5 -64
Siberian 290.8 279.4 -3.9 -11
Far Eastern 96.3 84.3 -12.5 -12
Crimea 14.2 5.4 -62 -9
Total: 4292.3 4108.5 -4.3 -184

Unconditional leadership of the Central Federal District due to the high concentration of solvent population in Moscow and Moscow region relative to other regions of Russia. A similar situation (on a smaller scale) was observed in St. Petersburg – and this can be explained by a high proportion of the North-West Federal District to 15%. The share of Volga Federal District 9% due to the high population: it is the second largest after the Central Federal District.

Top 14 Regions and Cities on retail sales of whiskey in January-October 2015

Table 4

Region or city January-October 2015, thousand dal
Moscow 1183.4
Moscow region 640.3
St. Petersburg 381.8
Krasnodar region 134.1
Tyumen region 108.6
Sverdlovsk region 79.1
Rostov region 70.5
Chelyabinsk region 69.1
Krasnoyarsk region 67.5
Leningrad region 63.8
Tatarstan 63.5
Samara Region 60.1
Nizhny Novgorod Region 57.3
Novosibirsk region 52.4

Imports of whiskey by countries of origin in January-October 2014 and 2015, thousands dal and in % of total imports

Table 5

Country January-October2014 January-October2015 Change+/-
United Kingdom 3272 (78%)  1985 (75%) -1287 (-39%)
USA 396 (9%)   286 (11%)   -110 (-28%)
Ireland   399 (10%) 213 (8%)  -187 (-47%)
Other 131 (3%) 158 (6%)     +27 (+21%)
Total:   4198 (100%)   2642 (100%)  -1556 (-37%)


Imports of whiskey by countries of origin in January-October 2014 and 2015, in million $ and % of total imports

Table 6

Country January-October2014 January-October2015 Change+/-
United Kingdom 287 (69%) 125 (66%) -162 (-56%)
USA  67 (16%)  38 (20%)  -29  (-43%)
Ireland   55 (13%) 20 (10%)  -35 (-63%)
Other   9 (2%) 7 (4%)   -2 (20%)
Total:   418 (100%)  191 (100%) -227 (-54%)

Key regions recipients of imported whiskey in January-October 2014 and 2015, thousands dal and in % of total imports

Table 7

Region or city January-October2014 January-October2015 Change+/-
Moscow 3418 (81%)  2150 (81%) -1267 (-37%)
Moscow region         450 (11%)         316 (12%)     -134 (-30%)
St. Petersburg 96 (2%)           38 (1%)       -58 (-61%)
Nizhny Novgorod Region 38 (1%)           35 (1%)         -3 (-8%)
Leningrad region 45 (1%)  23 (1%) -23 (-50%)
Other 151 (4%) 80 (3%) -71 (-47%)
Total:   4198 (100%) 2642 (100%)  -1556 (-37%)

Key regions recipients of imported whiskey in January-October 2014 and 2015, in millions of $ and in % of total imports

Table 8

Region or city January-October2014 January-October2015 Change+/-
Moscow 344 (82%)  157 (82%)     -187 (-54%)
Moscow region   49 (12%)    25 (13%)       -24 (49%)
St. Petersburg   9 (2%)      3 (2%)        -5 (-61%)
Leningrad region   6 (1%)      2 (1%)        -4 (-73%)
Nizhny Novgorod Region   3 (1%)      2 (1%)       -1 (-38%)
Other     7 (2%)       2 (1%)        -5 (-69%)
Total:   418 (100%)    191 (100%)    -227 (-54%)

Note that in the 10 months of 2015, Russia entered in the top five countries importing whiskey, behind the United States, France, Singapore and Germany and ahead of Spain, Taiwan and the Netherlands.

Summarizing the research, we can make the main conclusions that relate not only to a segment of the whiskey, but also to the spirits market of Russia in the whole. The increase of excises, together with the devaluation of the ruble in fact kill the legal market of alcoholic beverages.

To have understood correctly, we give the following disappointing data. In 2014, the official statistics recorded a surge of deaths from alcohol poisoning in Russia. So, in 2014 this figure amounted to 18.5 thousand (+ 9% in 2013) against 16.9 thousand in 2013. It is doubly sad that in 2014 the share of women in the total number of low-quality alcohol poisoned also incised (17% in 2014 vs. 14% in 2013). According to preliminary data, in January-November 2015 11.4 thousand people died from poisoning counterfeiting alcohol (+ 14% compared to the same period of the previous year). One of the most high-profile tragic cases was poisoned counterfeit whiskey in Krasnoyarsk in November 2015.

Alas, in the short term negative trend will only intensify. Weak ruble, worsening the quality of life of the population, growth of taxes and excise duties will lead to further decrease of the legal alcohol market and increased activity of illegal producers.

Email: alko-pr59@yandex.ru

Weekly analytical column of Vadim Drobiz Week March, 14 – March, 20 2016

Vadim Drobiz – Head of the Center for Federal and Regional Alcohol Market Research (CFRAMR)

The most quoted in the Russian media expert on the alcohol market of Russia, former Soviet republics and Eastern Europe. The latest news, detailed analysis, commentary, statistical databases on the alcohol market since 2002.

Full versions of the materials published in Russian on the website Vadim Drobiz http://cifrra.info/


Diageo expensive in Russia

The world’s largest manufacturer of alcohol British company Diageo in the second half of 2015 reduced sales in Russia by 12% in volume units. It is the most significant decline among all markets where the company operates today. But at the same time, company was able to increase net sales in Russia by 20%. These results Diageo explains the rise in prices and good sales of luxury, premium alcohol, where the increase was 24% in terms of volume.

As follows from the statements, the dynamics of sales in the Russian market was the worst among all the regions listed in the Diageo statements. For instance in Nigeria drop in sales in terms of volume was 8%. Global net sales for the half year Diageo has decreased by 5%.

According to customs statistics, the Diageo significantly reduced imports in Russia in such large categories of spirits like whiskey and rum: the volume of import decreased by 27.1% last year (up to 10.53 million liters) and 59% (up to 0,7 million liters), respectively. The total drop in imports of alcohol in the past year in the Russian market participants attributed the fall in consumer demand caused by the economic crisis and the need for importers to increase prices in a ruble devaluation significantly. In the second half of last year the pound sterling against the ruble rose by 23% to 107.49 rubles.

In Russia Diageo sells not only its imported products, but also those that are bottled under contract in the country – is whiskey drink Rowson’s Reserve and rum drink Shark Tooth. Both are shown in the lower price segment. The Diageo previously said they were satisfied with the dynamics of their sales.

Excise alcohol policy

In 2017 possible will be reduced excise rates on alcohol. Many market participants have long advocated for the introduction of a differentiated approach to excise tax alcohol producers. This should result in more stable market condition. Meanwhile, the state budget has already lost tens of billions of rubles of excise duties.

According to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, by 2017, the most significant increase in excise duties, if it count from 2008, will be on sparkling wines and beer. By next year tax increase on beer will be at least seven times for nine years. During the same period the excise tax on beverages of a strength of more than 9% ABV should grow to 523 rubles against the current rates of excise duty today – 500 rubles. (At the current rate it is $ 7.15) per 1 liter of pure alcohol. Tax on beer this year increased from 18 to 20 rubles per liter ($ 0.28). The constant increase in excise duties in recent years has led to a significant increase of the black market of counterfeit alcohol.

“In 2015 the volume of legally produced alcohol products, according to experts in Russia, decreased by 35%”, – said chairman of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko As a consequence, the budget did not get about 200-270 billion rubles ($ 2.85- $ 3.86 billion).

Russia little hope of…

So – Prohibition in Russia not expect; “semi-prohibition” – too; vodka ban in individual regions (the regional administration has the right under the law of 2012) also we do not expect.

Alcohol and drugs in Russia

For many years, I write that the only benefit from anti-alcohol companies in different countries in the last 120 years is the drug business … Here are the figures from the last interview with the head of the Russian intelligence agencies to combat drug trafficking. Head of agency: “Drug trafficking in Russia is estimated at $60 billion a year.” This is the current rate of 4.2 trillion rubles a year. Manufacturers of alcohol in the country of such amounts cannot even dream of. In  legal retail volume of sales are 1.9 trillion rubles. Together with illegal trade – around 2 trillion rubles. At half the size of drug trafficking in terms of money! Well, who won in Russia today??

From the Russian news …

Here is another interesting event in the subject: “Vladimir Putin solved the secret of longevity of Russians”. “On March 9, President of Russia Vladimir Putin met with the Minister of Health Veronika Skvortsova, who reported to the president on the current situation”, – reports the official website of the Kremlin.

Mrs Minister reported to the chief that “… Russians’ life expectancy has increased.” Putin laughed and asked, “What, Russians began to drink less?”… Further followed by a unique response of the Minister: “Partly, yes “))))))))))))))))))) Who would translate it into plain  language. What is it like? Partly?)))

Skvortsova said that the life expectancy of Russians has increased to 71.2 years, and more so for men. The mortality rate decreased primarily for men aged 35 to 60 years The difference between life expectancy for men and women has decreased.

(I want to comment on: medicine keeps all of us in captivity myths – less live, because we drink more and vice versa … But how in the EU live on average 10 years more than Russians with a similar average per capita alcohol consumption of the population?)

That is correct proposals of the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS):

– “… all prohibition laws fail”;

– ” …world experience in combating with counterfeiting – to simplify the conditions for business”;

– “…restricting the sale of alcohol near the social facilities has not led to a decrease of alcohol abuse the population”;

– “…if young people will banned buy alcohol legally under 21, they will replace it with drugs and surrogates…”;

– “…generally supports the position of the Ministry of Economic Development of the need to reduce the excise duty rates and in favor of reducing the powers of regional authorities in the administration of their inhibitions and alcohol sales restrictions “;

– “…toughen the penalties for counterfeiting”.

Proceeds to the Russian budget from excises on hard alcohol decreased in 2015 by 14 billion rubles ($ 215 million) compared with the previous year, said deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Budget and Financial Markets Vitaly Shuba. If in 2014 the budget received 142 billion rubles ($ 2.18 billion) then in 2015 it is 128 billion rubles ($ 1.97 billion). “- said the senator at a meeting on the problems of regulation of the alcohol market.

According to the study “Analysis of the market of vodka and liquors in Russia in 2010-2014 and the forecast for 2015-2019″, prepared by experts BusinesStat in 2015, during 2010-2014 demand for vodka and alcoholic beverages in the country is reduced each year. Over the past few years, hard alcohol market has undergone significant structural changes related to, first of all, with the state regulation of the industry.

Other important reasons are: the introduction in 2010 of the minimum retail price for spirits, the establishment in 2013 of the ban on the sale of alcohol at night, regular increase in excise tax rates on alcohol, reducing real incomes of population. For many consumers the rise in prices on vodka became a decisive factor in the decision when purchasing.

All these factors are reflected in the dynamics of demand on vodka and alcoholic beverages by consumers. The demand for this type of spirits for the 2010-2014 decreased by 18.3% – from 1.72 billion to 1.40 billion liters. The most significant decrease in demand has been noted in recent years: in 2013 – by 10.2% and in 2014 – by 7.2% compared to the previous years. At the end of 2015, the demand for these products will be about 1.30 billion liters, which is less than the indicator of 2014 by 7.4%.

How change the Russian market of wine production in 2004 – 2015 years according to retail sales

Year / Indicators The volume of wine soldin million liters The sum of salesin billion rubles The cost of one bottle of wine a capacity of 0.75 litersin rubles
2004 882 128.5 109.3
2005 957 151.3 118.6
2006 929 161.3 130.2
2007 1026 193.0 141.1
2008 1058 220.6 156.4
2009 1065 238.0 167.6
2010 1239 292.4 177.0
2011 1259 332.4 198.0
2012 1172 340.0 217.6
2013 1132 353.3 234.1
2014 1121 376.2 251.7
2015 1124 389.0 260.5
2015/2004 127% 303% 238%

From 1992 to 2012 all the attention in Russia at the federal level has been given only to vodka. Wine production was living own life. According to the table wine sales grew by 27% over this period, and in monetary terms, the increase was 203%. Cost of standard bottle of wine over 12 years increased by 2.4 times! This growth in relation to the population of the country purely fiscal. But all this time the state has declared a desire to change the structure of alcohol consumption in the country in favor of wine and wine products! And where some subsidies, which officials say? Something they are not visible in the prices…

It is well known that a mass-wine market in the EU – are the products of 2-3 euros for a bottle of wine and winemakers had subsidy 1 euro per 1 liter of wine. Thus European states wanted to preserve the structure of wine consumption in their own countries in a particularly noticeable amplification of strong alcohol market in Europe beginning with 2002.

We in Russia have not so much expensive wine (I think 30% of the market), but if the average price of a bottle of wine 260 rubles, while the average wage in the country is 30 000 rubles – it is 115 bottles per month.

What buyers we want to attract on the market in such a crazy high average price for the products? Again, we need an analogy – it’s like a bottle of wine in the United States or the EU for 23 dollars or the euro. It is quite expensive for the population of these countries. Wines expensive $10 or 10 euros in these countries is not more than 25% of the market.

The main obstacle in the development of normal wine market in Russia – it is not so much the alcohol policy of the state, as the socio-economic model of development of the country. Experience shows that this model does not work!

Opinion of soccer player …

Defender of the Russian soccer club “Zenith” from St. Petersburg, the Portuguese Luís Neto, spoke about the peculiarities of his life in Russia.

“I like in Russia. I extended my contract with the club for improved conditions. In Portugal such a contract I will received hardly. In Russia taxes are lower also. In Portugal people are more open. But in Russian original culture. I can say that in the “Zenith” good atmosphere… Russian drink vodka, as we water. In this business they are have more skills than the Portuguese. They start from a young age to train to drink alcohol”, – Neto said in an interview with A Bola.


Italian winemakers will develop the wine industry in the Crimea?

“Despite the sanctions, Crimea will cooperate with Italy in the field of viticulture and winemaking. Today in the republic is already several investors. Businessmen have expressed interest in the implementation of projects for the cultivation and processing of grapes in the country.” This statement was made by the head of the Republic of Crimea Sergey Aksenov.

Italian guests arrived in the republic without the press. Further meetings, according to Aksenov, also planned to be held not in public. Aksyonov also promised that he will appeal to the ministries of tourism and agriculture of the Crimea with a request to hold a working meeting with Italian winemakers. According to the Crimean leader, it will be held behind closed doors. In addition, he promised to find authorized for cooperation with Italian winemakers.

Aksyonov also said that in the past month, he has already met with a number of businessmen and investors who were ready to implement several investment projects on viticulture, winemaking and other industries. The meeting then took place also in secret.

Details the head of the republic does not light. At the same time, he noted that many companies from the BRIC countries are also ready to cooperate. “But in order not to create problems of partners, I do not call them” – said Aksenov.

It is worth mentioning that the EU, US, Australia, Canada and several other countries have joined the sanctions in connection with the annexation of the Crimea by Russia. They are prohibit the companies of these countries and their individual representatives to conduct any activity on the territory of Crimea. And while there is no indication that these sanctions in the near future be canceled.


Import of Georgian wine

Georgian wine returned back to the Russian market in 2013 after an eight-year embargo. The ban was introduced in the spring of 2006, initiated by the chief sanitary doctor of Russia Gennady Onishchenko. Georgian producers was accused of marketing the wine with a high content of pesticides and heavy metals. By the time of the embargo Georgian wine had a bad reputation – most of the products supplied to the Russian market, was of poor quality or was a fake.

Because of the embargo, Georgia has suffered significant losses. At the time of the embargo in Russia supplied about 80% of all wine produced in the country. In Russia, Georgian wine accounted for 10% of the market. Georgia accused Russia that the ban on wine has political objectives. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that in addition to the wine ban was imposed on the import of the popular mineral water “Borjomi”. This was followed by Georgia’s withdrawal from the CIS and the armed conflict in South Ossetia, which broke all ties between the two countries.

Only in 2013, the embargo was lifted for Georgian wines. Soon Rospotrebnadzor allow importation into Russia 17 brands of wine, and five brands of brandy. It was also stated that the list of authorized producers will be gradually expanded.

During the embargo control of production in Georgia has increased significantly throughout the supply chain from raw materials to packaging and transportation. Certification of vineyards was carried out, a unified base accounting of all wine produced in the country, intensified efforts to bind names of wines with the place of origin them. Today were registered 18 names of wine, which is clearly delineated geographical birthplace (“Hvanchkara”, “Tsinandali”, “Tvishi”, “Mukuzani”, “Kindzmarauli”, “Akhasheni” and others.). This measure Georgian authorities  actually fixed historical names of wines and protect products from counterfeiting.

However, in bilateral trade left many difficulties. One of them – this is a complex procedure of border crossing because of the visa regime, which still operates in Russia for Georgian citizens. A curious fact is that many Georgian wine makers, supplying most of the wine in Russia, have not been in it for decades.

Despite dire predictions that the lost positions Georgian wine is not back (during the absence of Georgian wine has come a lot of inexpensive wines from different parts of the world), to the beginning of June 2014 the Georgian wine became the third marketability in Russia. The Russian consumer has not forgotten Georgian wine, besides its promotion on the market a few helped ban on Moldovan wine. Russia is still considered the largest consumer of Georgian wine – the share of supply in the country exceeds 50%. And the price segment of Georgian wine has changed more expensive than before. In 2013, experts expect that the average price for a bottle of Georgian wine will be 500-800 rubles, but the price began to grow due to general inflation and a poor harvest. By the end of 2015, a bottle of the famous “Khvanchkara” good quality can be purchased for 1100-1800 rubles, the price of “Kindzmarauli” reached 1800-2000 rubles.

But here in the import of Georgian wine intervened the situation in the Russian economy. Due to the devaluation of the ruble and falling purchasing power of the population import Georgian wine declined. According to the National Agency of Georgian wines on the results of 2015, wine imports to Russia fell by 51% to $ 18.3 million bottles. For comparison, before the ban shipments stood at 50 million bottles. Despite this, Russia has maintained first place among Georgian wine exporters. The top five also includes Kazakhstan, Ukraine, China and Poland.

Export of Georgian wine in 2015 in the five leading import countries into standard 0.75 liter bottles

Russia – 18,308,177 bottles (50.8%)

Kazakhstan – 5,195,949 (14.4%)

Ukraine – 3,412,453 (9.5%)

China – 2,672,154 (7.4%)

Poland – 1,600,302 (4.4%)

Others – 4,882,364 (13.5%)

According to the expectations of the Georgian wine-makers in the coming years, the export structure will not change seriously. The most popular Georgian wine will be in the closest neighbors of the former Soviet Union. Overall, Georgia exports wine to 46 countries. In general, in 2015 the export of Georgian wine was reduced by 39%.


“According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Lithuania is ranked third in the list of countries that consume the most alcohol, but the latest research has shown that per capita Lithuanians older than 15 years in 2015 consumed only 13.14 liters of pure alcohol. It’s 2.26 liters less than shown by recent WHO data”,- said on March 9 in the Lithuanian association of hotels and restaurants.

The study took into account the impact which have more than 200 thousand of Lithuanian immigrants living and working in the states with the largest excise tax in Europe -. UK, Ireland, Norway and Sweden. This encourages immigrants, traders and tourists to bring in these countries cheaper Lithuanian goods, including alcohol. It can be assumed also that a lot of alcohol are taken out of the country organized large parties. For example, at the end of 2015 the Lithuanian riding on a truck to Sweden tried to smuggle 11 thousand liters of vodka, saying in association”…


The volume of production of famous Latvian enterprise of alcoholic beverages «Latvijas balzams» last year amounted to 73.41 million euro, profit – 7.06 million euros (9.62% of turnover). This is evidenced by the data submitted to the stock exchange «Nasdaq Riga».

The company’s turnover last year was 0.5% more than in 2014. The growth of this largely contributed to the increase of 4.85% of orders from «Stoli Group». However, significantly  decreased sales volumes in Russia and Ukraine, said the leadership of «Latvijas balzams».

During the reporting period profit decreased by 11% compared to 2014 year. Profit decrease was due to a reduction in sales in the most profitable markets, as well as the cost of advertising and marketing products. In the state budget the company «Latvijas balzams» last year donated 53 million euros (or 72.6% of turnover), including 40.1 million euros of the excise tax.

Czech Republic

During the last five years, imports of Czech beer has grown steadily, and its volume reached $270 million in 2015. The main importer of Czech beer became the neighboring Slovakia, in second place – Germany, on the third – Poland. Czech beer is also in demand in Sweden, UK, USA and South Korea.

Despite the drop in domestic demand, many Czech breweries have reported a 10% increase in production due to the interest to local beer abroad. For example, the Budvar brewery in Ceske Budejovice produces beer for foreign users 1.3 times higher than for locals. The main importers of the bruwery – Germany and Slovakia. Total Budvar exports its products to 75 countries around the world. However, in the Czech Republic remains the highest beer consumption per capita in the world – 147 liters per person per year. This is about 40 liters more than in the neighboring countries – Germany and Austria.


Poland has become one of the leading brewing and beer consumption country in the world

According to Ukrainian news agency Poles transferred from strong spirits to beer, from a strong beer to light one. In addition, more rarely consumes alcohol Polish youth. This writes the “Gazeta Wyborcza”. Union of beer producers “Polish brewery” (Browary Polskie) has published data on this topic for 2014-2015. As noted, polish brewing industry is not threatened, because the Poles drink beer constantly. Poland is one of the leaders of the consumption of this popular intoxicating drink.

The average beer lover in Poland drinks 98 liters a year. It is fourth place in the world. In the beer ranking leading the Czechs – 144 liters. Poland also brews a lot of beer – 40 million hectoliters a year. This is the third result in Europe. Most beers produced in Germany – 95 million and the United Kingdom – 41 million hectoliters. Brewing industry in 2014 brought the Polish budget of about 10 billion zlotys (2.3 billion euros).

“Poland has been and is a country of beer culture. But the ways of consumption are changing. The Poles prefer less strong spirits. On the market a lot of competition, because very often there are new kinds of beer “- say in the Association” Polish brewery “. However, the problem is the consumption of beer by youth. “Teenagers drink less and less with each year, but this is because they go to drugs and smoking blends. It is a big problem.” – added to the “Polish breweries.” Over the past 12 years, the interest of young people to beer halved, but  tovodka – has not changed.

Email: alko-pr59@yandex.ru

Weekly analytical column of Vadim Drobiz March, 7 – March, 13 2016

Vadim Drobiz – Head of the Center for Federal and Regional Alcohol Market Research (CFRAMR)

The most quoted in the Russian media expert on the alcohol market of Russia, former Soviet republics and Eastern Europe. The latest news, detailed analysis, commentary, statistical databases on the alcohol market since 2002.

Full versions of the materials published in Russian on the website Vadim Drobiz http://cifrra.info/

Week on March, 7 – March, 13 2016


Rospatent called “protect” brand “Russian vodka” as a national

Head of the Federal Service for Intellectual Property Gregory Ivliev said of the need to protect the brand “Russian vodka” as a national, as well as, for example, the French protect cognac or champagne. One of the deputies of the State Duma believes that it is unacceptable to use the brand “vodka” by foreign companies. He appealed to the Industry and Trade Minister to raise the issue at the WTO level and international courts. Ivliev, in turn, explained why the word “vodka” (as opposed to the “Russian vodka”) can not be use as a brand. He recalled that the first mention of word “vodka”, as spirits, appeared in the XVI century chronicles, and it was the territory of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (Rech Pospolitaja), is situated on the territory of present-day Poland, Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania. He noted that the word “vodka” was used not only in Moscow but also in Stockholm, and Warsaw. Head of Rospatent thus agreed that the nationalization of the brand “Russian vodka” can help Russian export.

Imports of wine production in Russia 2013 – 2015 years

Name 2013 (million liters) 2014 (million liters) 2015 (million liters) The change compared with 2014 year (%)
Cognac and brandy (Excluding Armenia) 26.34 25.52 8.81 -65.5
Wine 271.39 248.16 167.22 -32.6
Sparkling wine 43.08 50.14 33.25 -33.7

The devaluation of the ruble and the decline of purchasing power caused a significant reduction in the volume of imports of alcohol in Russia in 2015.

Revenues of Soviet and Russian budgets from excises on alcohol

In the USSR in 1970-1980-s alcohol gave about 5-6% of revenue in the budget. For comparison: in 2015, alcohol has brought only a little more than 1% of revenues to the Russian budget.

What Russians drink

According to experts, to 30 million Russians substitutes now strong legal alcohol by cheaper or simply illegal vodka – it is one in five. Over the last year the Russians consumed 150-180 million liters of pharmaceutical tinctures, about 400 million liters of alcohol liquids dual purpose, not less than 200 million liters of moonshine, 100-150 million liters of artisanal vodka, as well as 200 million liters of vodka factory in illegal retail.

The largest Russian manufacturers of vodka

On the results of 2015 the share of  “Tatspirtprom” сompany is 13% of the production of vodka in Russia, according to Rosstat materials. The company significantly increased its share of the vodka market: in 2014 it occupied 10%. “Tatspirtprom” in 2015 increased the production of vodka by 24%, reaching 86 million liters. Second place goes to “Synergy” (76 million liters, 12% of the market), the third – “RuSt” (72 million liters, 11% of the market).


Problems with the use of the brand “Cognac”

The European Union, especially France, insists that Armenia undertook refuse to use brand “cognac”. Armenian authorities do not agree with this requirement. After the rejection use of the brand name will not only image losses for 50 Armenian cognac producers, but also will be the reduction of sales volumes of the beverage in the market. The original way of solving the problem was set out in the Аssociation agreement, according to which the Armenian side was given 14 years, after which it was necessary to take a final decision. However, new negotiations began, because Armenia does not sign an Аssociation agreement with the EU.

Problem, associated with the name “cognac”, enough sensitive for the Armenian side, since cognac is produced in this area for over 100 years. Currently, in the Armenian market are about 50 enterprises producing “cognac”. “Сognac” one of the most famous Armenian brand in the CIS market. Due to the rebranding possible reduction in the volume of consumption of the drink.

The main market for Armenian “cognac” now – this is Russia. But because of the economic difficulties in Russia and devaluation of the ruble, Armenian “cognac” has become uncompetitive in the market. Sales decreased much: аt the end of 2015 by 50%. And export “cognac” under the brand name “brandy” economically inefficient, because on the market it is considered a cheaper variety of alcoholic beverage.

The Armenian side believes that the export of the drink in Russia under the name “cognac” will continue as long as the latter does not sign a corresponding document with France or the European Union on the termination of the sales in the Russia beverage under the name “cognac” any manufacturer other than French.


Preferences of Ukrainian consumers

Most Ukrainians prefer vodka, the second place are occupied by sparkling wines, and the third of the most popular alcoholic drink in country is wine – reported AllBiz International Center for Internet commerce. Beer only took 4th place in the ranking of favorite Ukrainian alcoholic beverages, just behind him on the 5th and 6th are brandy and whiskey. Among the outsiders appeared on the Ukrainian market, alcohol tinctures, liqueurs and alcoholic cocktails. Compared to 2015 the demand for vodka is growing rapidly – nearly 40%. But the biggest increase in sales in this year is seen in wine – about 50%.

However, all is not well in the vodka market of Ukraine. Yuri Sorochinskiy, CEO “LVN Limited” – Ukrainian producer of the famous vodka brand the Nemiroff – predicts the decline of the Ukrainian alcohol market by 20-25%, to 150 million liters in 2016. Due to the drastic increase of tariffs for 50% perhaps in March this year legal alcohol market will collapse. Last year the average vodka production volume fluctuated in the range of 190-200 million liters. According Sorochinskiy, a gradual decline began in 2011, and in recent years it has only accelerated. The main reason for the decline are ill-conceived tax reform, hyperinflation and a paltry purchasing power of the population.


Export of Georgian wine

According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia, in February 2016 the country increased its wine exports doubled over the same period of 2015. Most Georgian wine goes to Russia. Compared to February 2015 grew by 48.8% and reached a value of 2,559 thousand bottles (56.5% of total Georgian wine exports). This is followed by Kazakhstan (337.6 thousand bottles), Poland (more than 332 thousand bottles), China (over 219.3 thousand bottles) and other countries.


The drop of vodka production in the country

According to the Belarusian news agencies in the country in the January 2016 vodka production dropped to 6630 thousand liters. Compared with January 2015 production of vodka dropped by 20.6% or 1 720 thousand liters.

The average Belarusian family in October-December last year on food spending 41.2% of total consumer spending, and on alcohol – 2.2%. Well, can not population of country become an inveterate drunkard if spends only 2.2% of revenues in the legal retail alcohol. I remind, that the latest report of the World Health Organization  claims that Belarus belongs to one of the most drinking country in the world! (If only the Belarusian statistics report gives correct numbers.)

Email: alko-pr59@yandex.ru


США. Вино. Итоги 2015-го. Тенденции 2016-го.

В своем блоге Liz Thach, Master of Wine, профессор кафедры Управления и Винного Бизнеса университета Сонома в штате Калифорния, подводит итоги 2015 года для винной индустрии США и пытается определить тенденции ее развития в наступившем 2016-м году.

Вот как выглядит статистика 2015 в сжатой форме:

– в США вина в прошеднем году было продано на $38 млрд. По сравнению с 2014 рост составил 1.3%;

– число торговых точек, торгующих вином в стране – 545907 единиц;

– всего было поставлено на американский рынок собственного и импортного 383 млн стандартных 9-литровых ящиков вина. Рост на 2% в сравнении с 2014-м;

– из этого количества на долю калифорнийского вина пришлось 230 млн ящиков или 60%;

– на долю остальных 49 штатов пришлось 36 млн ящиков или 9%;

– импорт вина в США составил 31% от всего вина, проданного в США, или 117 млн ящиков. (На долю балка пришлось 21 млн ящиков из этого количества).

– США остается самой крупной страной в мире по общему потреблению вина. Первое место страна удерживает с 2010 года;

– 2015 год стал 23-м подряд годом роста продаж вина в США;

– число виноделен в США в 2015 – 8702 единиц;

– по количеству виноделен в отдельных штатах первая пятерка выглядит следующим образом: Калифорния – 4054 единиц; Вашингтон – 718 ед., Орегон – 689 ед., Нью-Йорк – 367 ед. и Вирджиния – 232 штуки;

– количество взрослого населения, которое достаточно регулярно потребляет вино в стране – 40%;

– потребление вина на душу населения – 11.9 л/чел в год (данные за 2014 год);

– распределение по полу: 57% из потребляющих вино, женщины, 43% мужчины;

– процент населения страны, потребляющий вино несколько раз в неделю – 35%; рост 2% по сравнению с 2010 годом.

– продажи по цвету: красных вин купили 46.3% от общего количества; белых – 44.3%, розовых – 4%;

– наиболее винопотребляющее поколение в Америке сегодня – миленниум. На него приходится 36% от всего выпитого в 2015 году вина. На втором месте бэби-буммеры – 34%.

- продажи вина в супермаркетах, специализированных винных магазинах и других местах, где вино только продают, но не потребляют (off-premise establishments) продолжает показывать двух-значные цифры роста как в объемных единицах, так и в денежном выражении особенно в четырех ценовых категориях: $11 – $14.99, $15 – $19.99, $20-$24.99 и более $25 за стандартную бутылку. Хотя 75% проданного вина в США попадает в ценовой диапазон менее $9 за бутылку.

– продажи вина в барах, ресторанах, во время спортивных соревнований, где вино потребляется там, где и покупается (on-premise establishments), остались примерно на том же уровне. По деньгам рост на 0.1%, по объемам падение на 4.1%.  В этих местах торгов вином по сортовому составу следующие три лидера – просекко (хотя, если быть точным, такого сорта винограда нет; знаменитое итальянское игристое вино делают в основном из белого сорта glera), белый Совиньон Блан и красный Каберене Совиньон.

– стоимость прямых поставок заказанного по интернету вина (из собственного штата или из других) составила в 2015 году  $2 млрд, что означает рост на 8.1% по сравнению с 2014-м. В объемных величинах – это 4.2 млн ящиков вина – около 1.5% от общего объема проданного в США вина по объему. Средняя цена бутылки вина, посланная по интернету, – $38. Винодельни сейчас имеют право поставлять свое вино без посредников в 43 штата (серьезный удар по дистрибютерам, как промежуточному звену, которые несказанно богатели на этом!)

– экспорт американского вина в 2015-м составил 51.2 млн ящиков на $1.61 млрд. Это рост на 7.6% по деньгам и на 4.1% по объему по сравнению с 2014-м. Значительная часть американского вина потребляется внутри страны.

Тенденции на 2016 год

По мнению Liz Thach в текущем году продолжится тенденция “премиумизации”, т.е. желания потребителей в США покупать больше премиального вина, больше тратить на него. Причем это относится не только к вину, но и ко всему алкоголю. Покупки вина в ценовом диапазоне $11 – 25 должны вырасти на двузначную цифру по деньгам, если только в американской и мировой экономиках не проявятся сильные негативные тенденции.

Будут продолжать значительно расти спрос на игристые вина и Сангрию. В 2015-м продажи Просекко в США выросли за год на 11.7%, а Сангрии – на 9.8% по деньгам.

Пять наиболее популярны сортов в США в текущем году предполагается будут: Совиньон Блан (в 2015-м рост по объему на 13.3%, по деньгам – 10.7%). Затем, возможно, окажутся Красные Смеси, Пино Нуар, Каберне Совиньон и Пино Гриджио. Но наибольшие объемы продаж в США вот уже достаточно долгое время приходятся на Шардоне.

Самым популярным винным импортом на рынке США скорее всего останутся вина Италии и Новой Зеландии. Им на пятки будет наступать продукция из Франции (рост в 2015-м на 10.8% по деньгам) и Португалии (рост на 8% по деньгам).

На бутылки в 750 мл приходится основной объем продаж вина в США (более 50% по объему). Но явно просматривется тренд на рост популярности 3-х литровых Tetra pack.

Немного (1%-2%), но будет расти потребление вина, хотя крафтовое пиво отвоевывает все большую часть алкогольного рынка страны. Американской винной индустрии нельзя “почивать на лаврах”, а необходимы серьезные инновации, чтобы успешно конкурировать за свою долю рынка!

По всем приведенным цифрам Liz Thach делает ссылки на соответствующие источники.

Оригинал статьи на английском языке можно посмотреть по этому адресу



А что пьют богатые американцы?

Настоящее французское Шампанское всегда относилось к элитным, престижным и недешевым винам. Это несомненно толкает цены на него постоянно вверх. Спрос на это вино точно соответствует состоянию мировой экономики. Экономика идет на подъем – спрос на Шампанское движется в том же направлении. Дела в мировой экономике становятся хуже – производители Шампанского жалуются на падение интереса к их продукции. Достаточно часто покупка Шампанского рассматривается обычными потребителями как приобретение товара из категории роскоши. Цена на него немалая. Американский сайт vinepair.com решил выяснить, а какие бренды Шампанского наиболее популярны среди богатых американцев, чей доход на семью превышает 200 тыс долларов в год и для которых покупка бутылки Шампанского не является чем-то особенным, большой и серьезной тратой. Причем это Шампанское потребляется не по каким-то особым датам или торжественным событиям, а на достаточно регулярной основе, как это указано на графике (“аn average month” – “в обычный, средний месяц”), в процентном отношении от общего числа опрошенных. Результаты этого исследования приведены ниже в графической форме.

Необходимо сделать два пояснения к графику:

– на графике вторая линия помечена словом “other” (“другой″); это подразумевает, что опрошенные потребители указывали другие бренды Шампанского, чем те 20, что указаны на графике. По отдельности эти бренды получили очень мало процентов, но в сумме они сравнимы с первой линией графика.

– упомянутые опрошенными американские бренды Korbel и Domaine Chandon по правилам не являются Шампанским вином, а только игристым, хотя на этикетках бренда Korbel и сказано, что это “Калифорнийское Шампанское”. На этикетках Domaine Chandon честно сказано, что это игристое вино. Об этом писалось на моем сайте здесь

Чаще всего богатые американцы (выше среднего класса) в повседневной жизни без особых причин и поводов, а просто потому что захотелось (ну кто может понять богатых?), предпочитают бренд Шампанского Möet & Chandon. На втором месте уже упомянутый термин “другие”. На третьем американское игристое вино Korbel, на четвертом бренд Veuve Clicquot (“Вдова Клико“). Замыкает первую пятерку бренд Dom Perignon. В определенной степени это соответствует статистике из моего материала “Крупнейшие производители Шампанского” тут, где первые два места заняли бренды Möet & Chandon и Veuve Clicquot. А вот бренд Dom Perignon в первую десятку лучших по продажам брендов Шампанского в мире не попал. У богатых вот такие “причуды”! Российские обеспеченные потребители, которых не затронул нынешний экономический кризис в стране, равняйтесь на богатых американцев в своем стиле жизни, пейте лучшее!

По материалам сайта vinepair.com

Weekly analytical column of Vadim Drobiz February 29 – March 6, 2016

Vadim Drobiz – Head of the Center for Federal and Regional Alcohol Market Research (CFRAMR)

Week on February 29 – March 6, 2016


According to official state statistics in Russia in 2015 were consumed 3.95 liters of wine per capita. This is 4 times less than was drunk wine in the former USSR. (This is without taking into account drinking illegal wine.)

In 2015 in Russia was drunk 1.1 billion liters of wine (still wine, sparkling wine and wine beverages.) Of this amount, 0.3 billion liters was made in Russia. This is less than 30%. The rest – brought from abroad in the form of a bulk. Of this amount, 40% comes from imports of wine bulk from Ukraine. And this situation will not change until 2020. There is chance of a small increase in consumption of wine to 1.2 billion liters per year, and Russia’s own wine material will be about 0.35 – 0.37 billion liters.

I want to note that in Russia last year imported table grapes accounted for 90% of the purchased grapes. At the same time, in our country, where 65% much poorer then the population in Western Europe, the grapes are sold for very European prices …


In Russia in 2015  in the legal retail were bought 5.9 liters of vodka per capita.


Beer production in Russia from 2007 to 2014 decreased by 40%. During 8 years in Russia were closed 20 major breweries production capacity of not less than 10 million liters per year each. And this trend continues. In fact, the real fall somewhat less: at least 350 million liters of beer was spent on the production of beer beverages. Add to this a strong 8-years duration demographic crisis in sector of beer consumers. It is also strongly influenced on the structure of consumption by the socio – economic crisis in Russia. There are huge amounts of illegal beer in draft form, etc.


In Russia today huge amounts of any alcohol sold in unlicensed retail. All regions recognize that over the last 4 years trade is full of illegal – surrogate alcohol and could not to do anything with illegal unlicensed retailers. In my opinion, if legally sell alcohol in the country 235,000 objects of trade, it is not less than 700 000 objects doing it illegally.

In the State Duma suggested a proposal to introduce a state monopoly on the production of sugar, alcohol and drugs. I believe that the fight against surrogate alcohol and the creation of state monopolies – it is absolutely different things. There is no fundamental difference in who produces alcohol. Today in Russia, the state does not produce or does not sell alcohol, but, nevertheless, there is an illegal market. And after the introduction of a state monopoly will remain as it is now. Half of the output will produce a state, and the other half – illegal private traders. There is a good example of Ukraine. Ukrainian alcohol for 20 years is made on the state-owned enterprises, and near half of the vodka market has always been illegal. Now Ukraine is just struggling to privatize state alcohol manufacturers. And in Russia, the movement is in the opposite direction. Russian MPs believe that if everything will be in hands of the state, then all will be well, and the Ukrainians on the contrary, are pinning their hopes on private traders.

At the same time no one wonders why there is such a demand for illegal alcohol? And the thing is the price of a legal product. In all post-Soviet countries for the general population legal alcohol is very expensive.

On the unemployment benefit citizen of the European Union or the United States can buy 200 bottles of legal vodka. Russian on his unemployment benefits can buy 10 times less – only 20 bottles. On the minimum wage can buy 30 bottles of vodka. These figures I cite to illustrate the level of prices. Therefore, in Europe for economic reasons no demand for surrogate product, although there illicit market is approximately 10-12%. In Russia illegal or surrogate hard liquor  accounts for 65%. Therefore, the state monopoly on alcohol production is absolutely meaningless.


According to the National Wine Agency, in 2015 the export of Georgian wine to China amounted to 2,675,154 bottles, in the United States – 248,075.


Email: alko-pr59@yandex.ru